1. Forecasting US tourists' inflow to Slovenia by modified holt-winters damped model : a case in the tourism industry logistics and supply chainsDejan Dragan, Abolfazl Keshavarzsaleh, Tomaž Kramberger, Borut Jereb, Maja Rosi, 2019, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: Forecasting is important in many branches of logistics, including the logistics related to Tourism supply chains. With an increasing inflow of American tourists, planning and forecasting the US tourists' inflow to Slovenia have gained far more importance attention amongst scholars and practitioners. This study, therefore, was conducted to forecast the American tourists' inflow to Slovenia using one of the predictive models based on the exponential smoothing approach, namely Holt-Winters damped additive (HWDA) exponential smoothing method. The model was modified by several improvements, while the obtained results were generalized to other supply chain components. The results show that the forecasting system can predict well the observed inflow, while the methodology used to derive the model might have enriched the plethora of existing practical forecasting approaches in the tourism domain. Benchmarking demonstrates that the proposed model outperforms a competitive ARIMA model and official forecasts. The practical implications are also discussed in this paper.
Ključne besede: tourism, forecasting, Holt-Winters model, US tourists, supply chains, logistics
Objavljeno v DKUM: 22.08.2024; Ogledov: 42; Prenosov: 9
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2. Electric vehicles as electricity storages in electric power systemsVlado Popović, Borut Jereb, Milorad J. Kilibarda, Milan Andrejić, Abolfazl Keshavarzsaleh, Dejan Dragan, 2018, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: Improvements in battery technology make electric vehicles more and more suitable for the use as electricity storages. Many benefits could be achieved by using electric vehicles for storing electricity in their batteries. This paper talks about the idea of electric vehicles as electricity storages in electric power systems. The idea has a great number of supporters, but also a significant part of the professional community believes that is unfeasible. This paper is not classified in either side and strives to give a realistic picture of this idea. For this purpose, findings from papers published in scientific journals are mainly used. There is also some information from websites, mainly for some technical issues. Partly, the opinions of the authors are present. Specificities of EVs and EPSs that enabled the birth of this idea are explained along with proposed concepts through which the idea can be implemented. Keeping with the vehicle to grid concept, issues about the implementation of the idea are considered. Achievements in the practical realization of the idea are also presented.
Ključne besede: electricity, electric vehicles, storages, V2G
Objavljeno v DKUM: 22.08.2024; Ogledov: 66; Prenosov: 4
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3. Optimal bus stops' allocation : a school bus routing problem with respect to terrain elevationKlemen Prah, Abolfazl Keshavarzsaleh, Tomaž Kramberger, Borut Jereb, Dejan Dragan, 2018, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The paper addresses the optimal bus stops allocation in the Laško municipality. The goal is to achieve a cost reduction by proper re-designing of a mandatory pupils' transportation to their schools. The proposed heuristic optimization algorithm relies on data clustering and Monte Carlo simulation. The number of bus stops should be minimal possible that still assure a maximal service area, while keeping the minimal walking distances children have to go from their homes to the nearest bus stop. The working mechanism of the proposed algorithm is explained. The latter is driven by three-dimensional GIS data to take into account as much realistic dynamic properties of terrain as possible. The results show that the proposed algorithm achieves an optimal solution with only 37 optimal bus stops covering 94.6 % of all treated pupils despite the diversity and wideness of municipality, as well as the problematic characteristics of terrains' elevation. The calculated bus stops will represent important guidelines to their actual physical implementation.
Ključne besede: logistics, maximal covering problems, optimization, data clustering, Monte Carlo simulation, geographic information system (GIS), reduction of transportation costs, Laško, Slovenia
Objavljeno v DKUM: 22.08.2024; Ogledov: 35; Prenosov: 13
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4. Road freight transport forecasting : a fuzzy Monte-Carlo simulation-based model selection approachDejan Dragan, Simona Šinko, Abolfazl Keshavarzsaleh, Maja Rosi, 2022, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: As important as the classical approaches such as Akaike's AIC information and Bayesian BIC criterion in model-selection mechanism are, they have limitations. As an alternative, a novel modeling design encompasses a two-stage approach that integrates Fuzzy logic and Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs). In the first stage, an entire family of ARIMA model candidates with the corresponding information-based, residual-based, and statistical criteria is identified. In the second stage, the Mamdani fuzzy model (MFM) is used to uncover interrelationships hidden among previously obtained models criteria. To access the best forecasting model, the MCSs are also used for different settings of weights loaded on the fuzzy rules. The obtained model is developed to predict the road freight transport in Slovenia in the context of choosing the most appropriate electronic toll system. Results show that the mechanism works well when searching for the best model that provides a well-fit to the real data.
Ključne besede: forecasting road transport, electronic toll system, Monte Carlo simulation, ARIMA models, logistics
Objavljeno v DKUM: 11.06.2024; Ogledov: 135; Prenosov: 15
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