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Business model optmization based on value management principles - the case of Krka d.d.
Gregor Gavranič, 2017, undergraduate thesis

Abstract: The subsequent bachelor’s thesis comprises an investment report with equity valuation of Krka, d.d. company, the largest Slovenian company and one of the leading generic pharmaceutical companies in region. Overall, the financial sector is coping with low interest rates and more and more investors are willing to enter the capital markets directly. The Slovenian equity markets was struggling to pick up the pace after the last major financial crisis, which was almost 10 years ago. The bull trend in other major and biggest markets in the world is on to set new records day by day. We try to find out if the company under scrutiny is attractive for investors and what upside potential it has in the future. The analysis is presented trough most appropriate, popular and renowned techniques that surround equity research and is followed by the creation of final recommendation. Those are Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Economic Value Added (EVA), Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Relative Multiples Valuation (RMV). Additionally, the approaches like Porter’s five forces analysis, SWOT analysis, Sensitivity analysis, Altman Z-score, Piotroski F-score, Beneish M-score, and Monte Carlo Simulation (MSC) were made. Since equity markets provide a bigger risk for investors, we try to investigate how risky is a particular company and sector. The investment risks and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) will help us do that. Risks and the future business surrounding also include macroeconomic analysis, which is also performed and helps us understand the topic under discussion better.. The key part of the thesis presents the building of financial valuation model with many variables and weighting it accordingly. The final fair value price is set and commented. In the conclusion, we summarise all our findings. Furthermore, some relevant facts are exposed and projected into the forecasted period. At the end we can conclude that the Value-based Management (VBM) gives clear result and projects a path for future development. The company that was used for the research is a perfect example how VBM methods used for valuation can provide us with broader picture and inform investors about the company. On the other hand, the methods can also provide a large source of information that can be useful to the company’s management.
Keywords: Macroeconomic analysis, valuation methods, Monte Carlo simulation, intrinsic value, risk profile
Published: 30.11.2017; Views: 2193; Downloads: 257
.pdf Full text (5,11 MB)

Synergies between an observed port and a logistic company
Dejan Dragan, Bojan Rosi, Toni Avžner, 2017, original scientific article

Abstract: The paper addresses an analysis of potential synergies in collaboration between an observed Port in the Mediterranean Sea and Central-European logistic railway-services based company. Both companies have established a strategic partnership. The main motive was cooperation in rail transport, with a particular emphasis on potential synergies that would a rail traffic have brought to a port's business. For the purpose of synergies valuation under uncertain conditions, a Monte Carlo simulation-based framework with integrated discounted cash flow (DCF) model is applied. The possible values of future synergies are calculated via the DCF model by simultaneously changing values of different uncertain financial parameters at each repetition of a Monte Carlo scenario-playing mechanism. In this process, predicted forecasts of future synergetic throughputs are also used for various types of observed cargo. As it turned out, the generated synergies' values follow the approximate normal distribution. Based on statistical inference and analysis of probability intervals it was discovered that there might indeed exist certain important synergies in the collaboration between both companies. This fact has convinced us into a belief in the correctness of companies' decision to enter into such kind of strategic cooperation.
Keywords: port economics, financial management, valuation, discounted cash-flow model, Monte Carlo simulation, logistics
Published: 06.07.2017; Views: 707; Downloads: 116
.pdf Full text (1,22 MB)
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[ast]-orderable semigroups
Igor Klep, Primož Moravec, 2010, original scientific article

Abstract: Fiksirajmo ▫$ast$▫-uredljivi obseg ▫$k$▫. V članku vpeljemo razred ▫$ast▫-uredljivih polgrup kot tistih polgrup ▫$S$▫ z involucijo, za katere se da polgrupna algebra ▫$kS$▫, opremljena s kanonično involucijo, ▫$ast$▫-urediti Pokažemo, da je ta razred kvazi varieteta, ki je lokalno in residualno zaprta. Poleg tega dokažemo, da se da nilpotentna polgrupa s krajšanjem in involucijo ▫$ast$▫-urediti natanko tedaj, ko ima lastnost enoličnega izražanja korenov. V splošnem ta ekvivalenca ne drži, po drugi strani pa ima vsaka ▫$ast$▫-uredljiva polgrupa lastnost enoličnega izražanja korenov.
Keywords: algebra, ▫$^ast$▫-ureditev, polgrupa z involucijo, nilpotentna polgrupa, teorija valuacij, algebra, ▫$^ast$▫-ordering, semigroup with involution, nilpotent semigroup, valuation theory
Published: 10.07.2015; Views: 499; Downloads: 10
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