1. Socio-demographic and health factors drive the epidemic progression and should guide vaccination strategies for best COVID-19 containmentRene Markovič, Marko Šterk, Marko Marhl, Matjaž Perc, Marko Gosak, 2021, original scientific article Abstract: We propose and study an epidemiological model on a social network that takes into account heterogeneity of the population and different vaccination strategies. In particular, we study how the COVID-19 epidemics evolves and how it is contained by different vaccination scenarios by taking into account data showing that older people, as well as individuals with comorbidities and poor metabolic health, and people coming from economically depressed areas with lower quality of life in general, are more likely to develop severe COVID-19 symptoms, and quicker loss of immunity and are therefore more prone to reinfection. Our results reveal that the structure and the spatial arrangement of subpopulations are important epidemiological determinants. In a healthier society the disease spreads more rapidly but the consequences are less disastrous as in a society with more prevalent chronic comorbidities. If individuals with poor health are segregated within one community, the epidemic outcome is less favorable. Moreover, we show that, contrary to currently widely adopted vaccination policies, prioritizing elderly and other higher-risk groups is beneficial only if the supply of vaccine is high. If, however, the vaccination availability is limited, and if the demographic distribution across the social network is homogeneous, better epidemic outcomes are achieved if healthy people are vaccinated first. Only when higher-risk groups are segregated, like in elderly homes, their prioritization will lead to lower COVID-19 related deaths. Accordingly, young and healthy individuals should view vaccine uptake as not only protecting them, but perhaps even more so protecting the more vulnerable socio-demographic groups.
Keywords: epidemic model, COVID-19, vaccination strategy, vaccination strategy, population heterogeneity, socio-demographic structure, metabolic disease, social network
Published in DKUM: 14.11.2024; Views: 0; Downloads: 12
 Full text (7,09 MB)
This document has many files! More... |
2. COVID-19 vaccine boosters: the good, the bad, and the uglyPiotr Rzymski, Carlos A. Camargo, Andrzej Fal, Robert Flisiak, Willis Gwenzi, Roya Kelishadi, Alexander Leemans, Juan J. Nieto, Ahmet Ozen, Matjaž Perc, Barbara Poniedziałek, Constantine Sedikides, Frank W. Sellke, Emilia C. Skirmuntt, Anzhela Stashchak, Nima Rezaei, 2021, original scientific article Abstract: Pursuing vaccinations against COVID-19 brings hope to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and remains the most rational decision under pandemic conditions. However, it does not come without challenges, including temporary shortages in vaccine doses, significant vaccine inequity, and questions regarding the durability of vaccine-induced immunity that remain unanswered. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 has undergone evolution with the emergence of its novel variants, characterized by enhanced transmissibility and ability to at least partially evade neutralizing antibodies. At the same time, serum antibody levels start to wane within a few months after vaccination, ultimately increasing the risk of breakthrough infections. This article discusses whether the administration of booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines is urgently needed to control the pandemic. We conclude that, at present, optimizing the immunity level of wealthy populations cannot come at the expense of low-income regions that suffer from vaccine unavailability. Although the efficiency of vaccination in protecting from infection may decrease over time, current data show that efficacy against severe disease, hospitalization, and death remains at a high level. If vaccine coverage continues at extremely low levels in various regions, including African countries, SARS-CoV-2 may sooner or later evolve into variants better adapted to evade natural and vaccine-induced immunity, ultimately bringing a global threat that, of course, includes wealthy populations. We offer key recommendations to increase vaccination rates in low-income countries. The pandemic is, by definition, a major epidemiological event and requires looking beyond one's immediate self-interest; otherwise, efforts to contain it will be futile.
Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, disease dynamics, exponential growth, virality, vaccination strategy, immunology, massive vaccinations, vaccine inequity, SARS-CoV-2
Published in DKUM: 14.10.2024; Views: 0; Downloads: 10
Full text (278,36 KB)
This document has many files! More... |
