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Understanding the structural complexity of induced travel demand in decision-making
Juan Angarita-Zapata, Jorge Parra-Valencia, Hugo Andrade-Sosa, 2016, original scientific article

Abstract: Background and purpose: Induced travel demand (ITD) is a phenomenon where road construction increases vehicles’ kilometers traveled. It has been approached with econometric models that use elasticities as measure to estimate how much travel demand can be induced by new roads. However, there is a lack of “white-box” models with causal hypotheses that explain the structural complexity underlying this phenomenon. We propose a system dynamics model based on a feedback mechanism to explain structurally ITD. Methodology: A system dynamics methodology was selected to model and simulate ITD. First, a causal loop diagram is proposed to describe the ITD structure in terms of feedback loops. Then a stock-flows diagram is formulated to allow computer simulation. Finally, simulations are run to show the quantitative temporal evolution of the model built. Results: The simulation results show how new roads in the short term induce more kilometers traveled by vehicles already in use; meanwhile, in the medium-term, new traffic is generated. These new car drivers appear when better flow conditions coming from new roads increase attractiveness of car use. More cars added to vehicles already in use produce new traffic congestion, and high travel speeds provided by roads built are absorbed by ITD effects. Conclusion: We concluded that approaching ITD with a systemic perspective allows for identifying leverage points that contribute to design comprehensive policies aimed to cope with ITD. In this sense, the model supports decision- making processes in urban contexts wherein it is still necessary for road construction to guarantee connectivity, such as the case of developing countries.
Keywords: induced travel demand, system dynamics, decision-making, dynamic modeling
Published: 23.01.2018; Views: 575; Downloads: 89
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Mirjana Kljajić Borštnar, Davorin Kofjač, Andrej Škraba, Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber, Andreja Pucihar, 2017, preface, afterword

Keywords: simulation, modeling, system dynamics, decision making
Published: 29.11.2017; Views: 564; Downloads: 66
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A system dynamics model for improving primary education enrollment in a developing country
Chandra Sekhar Pedamallu, Linet Ozdamar, LS Ganesh, Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber, Erik Kropat, 2010, original scientific article

Abstract: The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. This is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, analyzing, and discussing complex issues and problems. System dynamics modeling is often the background of a systemic thinking approach and has become a management and organizational development paradigm. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for studying the importance of infrastructure facilities on the quality of primary education system in a developing nation. The model is built using the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) method of relating entities and attributes relevant to the primary education system in any given community. The CIA model enables us to predict the effects of infrastructural facilities on the community's access of primary education. This may support policy makers to take more effective actions in campaigns that attempt to improve literacy.
Keywords: developing countries, system modeling, cross impact analysis, simulation, system dynamics, primary education
Published: 28.11.2017; Views: 507; Downloads: 238
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Sugar beet production
Črtomir Rozman, Miroljub Kljajić, Karmen Pažek, 2015, original scientific article

Abstract: Background and Purpose: The sugar beet is the main field crop used for sugar production in the temperate climatic zone. Since investment in sugar beet industry are long term and ireversible the decision support and economic analysis are required in order to maximise investment returns. Methodology: A system dynamics methodology was chosen to model the impacts of regional sugar factory investments. We present the basic concepts of system dynamics (SD) models and their development in the case of sugar beet production and processing systems. Sugar beet economics are also analyzed using the static technological economic simulation model. Results: The simulation provides answers to strategic questions related to the total sugar beet production and processing system and will be used for the simulation of different scenarios for sugar production and their impact on economic and environmental parameters at an aggregate level. Furthermore, the feasibility analysis of sugar beet production revealed that at the current price and intensity levels (yields), we can expect profitable sugar beet production for both white sugar and ethanol. Conclusion: Preliminary results show that under expected production parameters the sugar beet processing and production would be economically feasible.
Keywords: sugar beet, modeling, system dynamics, economic feasibility
Published: 04.04.2017; Views: 782; Downloads: 143
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Multi attribute decision model for orchard renewal - case study in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Karmen Pažek, Črtomir Rozman, Ferhat Ćejvanović, Andreja Borec, Darja Majkovič, Vjekoslav Par, Jernej Turk, 2005, original scientific article

Abstract: The fruit production in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH) is slowly returning to normality after Balkan wars. Due to favorable climatic and soil conditions it presents a clear business opportunity for family farms. The decision which fruit species/variety to grow is a complex decision and should be made on the basis of sound empirical analysis. This paper present a multi criteria model for planning and decision making methodology based on expert system DEX-i. In the first stage the technological and financial cost benefit analysis were conducted for each fruit production alternative. The results were further evaluated with expert system DEX-i considering all possible criteria influencing the fruit grower decision. In the case of a sample family farm the plum yielded with best multi criteria evaluation, followed by apple and pear, while sour cherry gave unsatifactory outcome.
Keywords: cost benefit analysis, fruit production, multi attribute decision modeling, expert system DEX-i
Published: 10.07.2015; Views: 790; Downloads: 22
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