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1.
Alternative forecasting techniques that reduce the bullwhip effect in a supply chain
Francisco Campuzano Bolarín, Antonio Guillamón Frutos, Ma Del Carmen Ruiz Abellón, Andrej Lisec, 2013, review article

Abstract: The research of the Bullwhip effect has given rise to many papers, aimed at both analysing its causes and correcting it by means of various management strategies because it has been considered as one of the critical problems in a supply chain. This study is dealing with one of its principal causes, demand forecasting. Using different simulated demand patterns, alternative forecasting methods are proposed, that can reduce the Bullwhip effect in a supply chain in comparison to the traditional forecasting techniques (moving average, simple exponential smoothing, and ARMA processes). Our main findings show that kernel regression is a good alternative in order to improve important features in the supply chain, such as the Bullwhip, NSAmp, and FillRate.
Keywords: bullwhip effect, supply chain, kernel regression, system dynamics model
Published: 31.05.2017; Views: 566; Downloads: 84
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2.
The development of sugar beet production and processing simulation model
Črtomir Rozman, Andrej Škraba, Karmen Pažek, Miroljub Kljajić, 2014, original scientific article

Abstract: Background: The sugar beet is the main field crop used for sugar production in the temperate climatic zone. The abolishment of the quota system will open new investment opportunities in countries that were forced to abandon sugar industry as the result of the reform in 2006. Present paper describes the modeling of sugar beet production and its processing into sugar for purpose of decision support. Methods: A system dynamics methodology was chosen to model impacts of regional sugar factory investment. We present two basic concepts of system dynamics models at causal loop diagram level. The first holistic model deals with regional planning of new product development and the second one deals with factory model. Results: The holistic model presented main feedback loops and dynamics of main elements in the case of regional investment into sugar industry. The factory model considered the specifics of the beet processing which is a) limited period of beet processing and b) initial adjustment to the production capacity at the start of the production season Conclusions: The model seeks answers to strategic questions related to the whole sugar beet production and processing system and will be used for simulation of different scenarios for sugar production and their impact on economic and environmental parameters at an aggregate level.
Keywords: sugar beet, system dynamics, simulation, model
Published: 04.04.2017; Views: 824; Downloads: 93
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System dynamics model for policy scenarios of organic farming development
Črtomir Rozman, Karmen Pažek, Jernej Prišenk, Andrej Škraba, Miroljub Kljajić, 2012, original scientific article

Abstract: This paper presents the system dynamics of organic farming development in order to support decision making. the model seeks answers to strategic questions related to the level of organically utilized area, levels of production and crop selection in long-term dynamic context. The model will be used for simulation of different policy scenarious for organic farming and their imapct on economic and developmental parameters of organic production atan aggregate level. Using the model, several policy scenarios were performed.
Keywords: organic farming, system dynamics, simulation, model
Published: 10.07.2015; Views: 1009; Downloads: 275
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