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Abstract: The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While VP holders could initially be allowed more freedom, the lack of full vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions.
Keywords: SIRS model, vaccination pass, stability analysis
Published in DKUM: 15.07.2024; Views: 99; Downloads: 8
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Abstract: For the design of slender structures consisting of plates and tubes, such as supporting structures at cranes, buckling is beside stress and fatigue often the governing failure criteria. Stability analysis of such structures is usually performed using the GMNIA method according to DIN EN 1993. For this purpose, a suitable geometric equivalent imperfection must be applied to the structure. Buckling inherent shapes are determined for this purpose and scaled according to applicable safety concepts. Including imperfections in stability analysis can generally be relevant for the load-bearing behavior of a structure. Within this master thesis work, the influence of the initial geometric imperfection on stability behaviour is investigated. This study examines the influence, that imperfections imposed on members subjected to tensile stress have on stability behaviour. Tensile members of structures are identified and initial geometric imperfection is imposed on them in addition to critical members, that are subjected to compression stress. It is shown, that including imperfections on tensile members in stability analysis, has only a minor influence on stability behaviour and stiffness of the structure, both reducing it just slightly. Further on, investigation on boom model, that is supporting structure of the crawler crane, is made. Boom model consist of main chord members and diagonals connecting them. At the joint connection of boom and two diagonal members, one subjected to tension and one subjected to compression stress, appears area of high shear stresses. Influence of the direction, that imperfection is imposed on the diagonal member, and what is the influence on the stability behaviour and structural strength is presented in this work. Most severe case of the two chosen direction is pointed out and discussed.
Keywords: stability analysis, initial geometric imperfections, thin-walled structures, finite element method
Published in DKUM: 06.07.2022; Views: 582; Downloads: 58
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Abstract: This paper treats the 3D nonlinear dynamic behavior of a rock-fill dam based on the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. The dam is situated in a steep, narrow, “V-shaped” rigid canyon. The concept of a massless rock foundation is treated, for which a certain part of the rock is included in the model. The dam-rock interface was modeled by contact elements, which allowed certain relative displacements between the two media of different stiffnesses. The generation of the 3D mathematical model was related to the topology of the terrain, and the nonlinear dynamic response was based on the "step-by-step" linear-acceleration direct-integration method, making use of the Wilson-θ method. The convergence process was in accordance with the Newton-Raphson method. First, the initial static effective stresses existing in the conditions of the established stationary filtration through the clayey core were defined. The analysis was based on an original FE program for the static and dynamic analyses of rock-fill dams, as well as a FE program for the solution of the stationary filtration process through the clayey core. The dynamic response of the 3D model of the dam was defined for the effect of harmonic excitations. Dynamic analyses in the linear and nonlinear domains were performed for the purpose of comparing the results. The time histories of the linear and nonlinear responses were defined for selected sections and nodes of the model, the tension cut-off zones, the plastic deformations, and the stress-shear strain relationships. The coefficient against the sliding of the potential sliding surfaces was also defined. It can be concluded that 3D analyses as well as a nonlinear material treatment of the soils built in the dam are imperative for a proper assessment of the stability of rock-fill dams situated in narrow canyons.
Keywords: automatic generation of 3D model, rock-fill dam, nonlinear dynamic analysis, elastic perfectly plastic criterion, tension cutoff, cracking zones, plastic deformations, stability
Published in DKUM: 18.05.2018; Views: 1587; Downloads: 177
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Keywords: matematika, analiza, ▫$L^p$▫ prostori, ▫$C_0$▫-polgrupa, eksponentna stabilnost, mathematics, analysis, ▫$C_0$▫-semigroup, ▫$L^p$▫ spaces, exponential stability
Published in DKUM: 10.07.2015; Views: 985; Downloads: 27
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