1. Local and global stimuli in reinforcement learningDanyang Jia, Hao Guo, Zhao Song, Lei Shi, Xinyang Deng, Matjaž Perc, Zhen Wang, 2021, original scientific article Abstract: In efforts to resolve social dilemmas, reinforcement learning is an alternative to imitation and exploration in evolutionary game theory. While imitation and exploration rely on the performance of neighbors, in reinforcement learning individuals alter their strategies based on their own performance in the past. For example, according to the Bush-Mosteller model of reinforcement learning, an individual's strategy choice is driven by whether the received payoff satisfies a preset aspiration or not. Stimuli also play a key role in reinforcement learning in that they can determine whether a strategy should be kept or not. Here we use the Monte Carlo method to study pattern formation and phase transitions towards cooperation in social dilemmas that are driven by reinforcement learning. We distinguish local and global players according to the source of the stimulus they experience. While global players receive their stimuli from the whole neighborhood, local players focus solely on individual performance. We show that global players play a decisive role in ensuring cooperation, while local players fail in this regard, although both types of players show properties of "moody cooperators". In particular, global players evoke stronger conditional cooperation in their neighborhoods based on direct reciprocity, which is rooted in the emerging spatial patterns and stronger interfaces around cooperative clusters. Keywords: evolutionary game theory, cooperation, learning, social physics Published in DKUM: 03.03.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 0
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2. The self-organizing impact of averaged payoffs on the evolution of cooperationAttila Szolnoki, Matjaž Perc, 2021, original scientific article Abstract: According to the fundamental principle of evolutionary game theory, the more successful strategy in a population should spread. Hence, during a strategy imitation process a player compares its payoff value to the payoff value held by a competing strategy. But this information is not always accurate. To avoid ambiguity a learner may therefore decide to collect a more reliable statistics by averaging the payoff values of its opponents in the neighborhood, and makes a decision afterwards. This simple alteration of the standard microscopic protocol significantly improves the cooperation level in a population. Furthermore, the positive impact can be strengthened by increasing the role of the environment and the size of the evaluation circle. The mechanism that explains this improvement is based on a self-organizing process which reveals the detrimental consequence of defector aggregation that remains partly hidden during face-to-face comparisons. Notably, the reported phenomenon is not limited to lattice populations but remains valid also for systems described by irregular interaction networks. Keywords: evolutionary game theory, cooperation, learning, social physics Published in DKUM: 03.03.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 0
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3. Optimal governance and implementation of vaccination programmes to contain the COVID-19 pandemicMahendra Piraveenan, Shailendra Sawleshwarkar, Michael Walsh, Iryna Zablotska, Samit Bhattacharyya, Habib Hassan Farooqui, Tarun Bhatnagar, Anup Karan, Manoj Murhekar, Sanjay P. Zodpey, K. S. Mallikarjuna Rao, Philippa Pattison, Albert Y. Zomaya, Matjaž Perc, 2021, original scientific article Abstract: Since the recent introduction of several viable vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, vaccination uptake has become the key factor that will determine our success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that game theory and social network models should be used to guide decisions pertaining to vaccination programmes for the best possible results. In the months following the introduction of vaccines, their availability and the human resources needed to run the vaccination programmes have been scarce in many countries. Vaccine hesitancy is also being encountered from some sections of the general public. We emphasize that decision-making under uncertainty and imperfect information, and with only conditionally optimal outcomes, is a unique forte of established game-theoretic modelling. Therefore, we can use this approach to obtain the best framework for modelling and simulating vaccination prioritization and uptake that will be readily available to inform important policy decisions for the optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Keywords: COVID-19, evolutionary game theory, digital epidemiology, vaccination, social network, public goods game, social physics Published in DKUM: 28.02.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 2
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4. Seasonal payoff variations and the evolution of cooperation in social dilemmasAttila Szolnoki, Matjaž Perc, 2019, original scientific article Abstract: Varying environmental conditions affect relations between interacting individuals in social dilemmas, thus affecting also the evolution of cooperation. Oftentimes these environmental variations are seasonal and can therefore be mathematically described as periodic changes. Accordingly, we here study how periodic shifts between different manifestations of social dilemmas affect cooperation. We observe a non-trivial interplay between the inherent spatiotemporal dynamics that characterizes the spreading of cooperation in a particular social dilemma type and the frequency of payoff changes. In particular, we show that periodic changes between two available games with global ordering best be fast, while periodic changes between global and local ordering games best be slow for cooperation to thrive. We also show that the frequency of periodic changes between two local ordering social dilemmas is irrelevant, because then the process is fast and simply the average cooperation level of the two is returned. The structure of the interaction network plays an important role too in that lattices promote local ordering, whilst random graphs hinder the formation of compact cooperative clusters. Conversely, for local ordering the regular structure of the interaction network is only marginally relevant as role-separating checkerboard patterns do not rely on long-range order. Keywords: cooperation, social dilemma, social physics, phase transition, mixed games Published in DKUM: 26.02.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 2
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5. Clustering patterns in efficiency and the coming-of-age of the cryptocurrency marketHigor Y. D. Sigaki, Matjaž Perc, Haroldo V. Ribeiro, 2019, original scientific article Abstract: The efficient market hypothesis has far-reaching implications for financial trading and market stability. Whether or not cryptocurrencies are informationally efficient has therefore been the subject of intense recent investigation. Here, we use permutation entropy and statistical complexity over sliding time-windows of price log returns to quantify the dynamic efficiency of more than four hundred cryptocurrencies. We consider that a cryptocurrency is efficient within a time-window when these two complexity measures are statistically indistinguishable from their values obtained on randomly shuffled data. We find that 37% of the cryptocurrencies in our study stay efficient over 80% of the time, whereas 20% are informationally efficient in less than 20% of the time. Our results also show that the efficiency is not correlated with the market capitalization of the cryptocurrencies. A dynamic analysis of informational efficiency over time reveals clustering patterns in which different cryptocurrencies with similar temporal patterns form four clusters, and moreover, younger currencies in each group appear poised to follow the trend of their 'elders'. The cryptocurrency market thus already shows notable adherence to the efficient market hypothesis, although data also reveals that the coming-of-age of digital currencies is in this regard still very much underway. Keywords: cryptocurrency, market efficiency, financial trading, social physics Published in DKUM: 26.02.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 2
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6. Evolutionary dynamics of any multiplayer game on regular graphsChaoqian Wang, Matjaž Perc, Attila Szolnoki, 2024, original scientific article Abstract: Multiplayer games on graphs are at the heart of theoretical descriptions of key evolutionary processes that govern vital social and natural systems. However, a comprehensive theoretical framework for solving multiplayer games with an arbitrary number of strategies on graphs is still missing. Here, we solve this by drawing an analogy with the Balls-and-Boxes problem, based on which we show that the local configuration of multiplayer games on graphs is equivalent to distributing k identical co-players among n distinct strategies. We use this to derive the replicator equation for any n-strategy multiplayer game under weak selection, which can be solved in polynomial time. As an example, we revisit the second-order free-riding problem, where costly punishment cannot truly resolve social dilemmas in a well-mixed population. Yet, in structured populations, we derive an accurate threshold for the punishment strength, beyond which punishment can either lead to the extinction of defection or transform
the system into a rock-paper-scissors-like cycle. The analytical solution also qualitatively agrees with the phase diagrams that were previously obtained for non-marginal selection strengths. Our framework thus allows an exploration of any multi-strategy multiplayer game on regular graphs. Keywords: evolutionary game theory, cooperation, network, social physics Published in DKUM: 26.02.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 3
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7. Collective dynamics of stock market effciencyLuiz G. A. Alves, Higor Y. D. Sigaki, Matjaž Perc, Haroldo V. Ribeiro, 2020, original scientific article Abstract: Summarized by the efcient market hypothesis, the idea that stock prices fully refect all available information is always confronted with the behavior of real-world markets. While there is plenty of evidence indicating and quantifying the efciency of stock markets, most studies assume this efciency to be constant over time so that its dynamical and collective aspects remain poorly understood. Here we defne the time-varying efciency of stock markets by calculating the permutation entropy within sliding time-windows of log-returns of stock market indices. We show that major world stock markets can be hierarchically classifed into several groups that display similar long-term efciency profles. However, we also show that efciency ranks and clusters of markets with similar trends are only stable for a few months at a time. We thus propose a network representation of stock markets that aggregates their short-term efciency patterns into a global and coherent picture. We fnd this fnancial network to be strongly entangled while also having a modular structure that consists of two distinct groups of stock markets. Our results suggest that stock market efciency is a collective phenomenon that can drive its operation at a high level of informational efciency, but also places the entire system under risk of failure. Keywords: collective dynamics, social physics, econophysics, stock market Published in DKUM: 14.01.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 4
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8. Impact of inter-city interactions on disease scalingNathalia A. Loureiro, Camilo R. Neto, Jack Sutton, Matjaž Perc, Haroldo V. Ribeiro, 2025, original scientific article Abstract: Inter-city interactions are critical for the transmission of infectious diseases, yet their effects on the scaling of disease cases remain largely underexplored. Here, we use the commuting network as a proxy for inter-city interactions, integrating it with a general scaling framework to describe the incidence of seven infectious diseases across Brazilian cities as a function of population size and the number of commuters. Our models significantly outperform traditional urban scaling approaches, revealing that the relationship between disease cases and a combination of population and commuters varies across diseases and is influenced by both factors. Although most cities exhibit a less-than-proportional increase in disease cases with changes in population and commuters, more-than-proportional responses are also observed across all diseases. Notably, in some small and isolated cities, proportional rises in population and commuters correlate with a reduction in disease cases. These findings suggest that such towns may experience improved health outcomes and socioeconomic conditions as they grow and become more connected. However, as growth and connectivity continue, these gains diminish, eventually giving way to challenges typical of larger urban areas - such as socioeconomic inequality and overcrowding - that facilitate the spread of infectious diseases. Our study underscores the interconnected roles of population size and commuter dynamics in disease incidence while highlighting that changes in population size exert a greater influence on disease cases than variations in the number of commuters. Keywords: complex networks, statistical physics, interactions between cities, disease scaling, social physics Published in DKUM: 09.01.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 4
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9. Association between productivity and journal impact across disciplines and career ageAndre S. Sunahara, Matjaž Perc, Haroldo V. Ribeiro, 2021, original scientific article Abstract: The association between productivity and impact of scientific production is a long-standing debate in science that remains controversial and poorly understood. Here we present a large-scale analysis of the association between yearly publication numbers and average journal-impact metrics for the Brazilian scientific elite. We find this association to be discipline specific, career age dependent, and similar among researchers with outlier and nonoutlier performance. Outlier researchers either outperform in productivity or journal prestige, but they rarely do so in both categories. Nonoutliers also follow this trend and display negative correlations between productivity and journal prestige but with discipline-dependent intensity. Our research indicates that academics are averse to simultaneous changes in their productivity and journal-prestige levels over consecutive career years. We also find that career patterns concerning productivity and journal prestige are discipline-specific, having in common a raise of productivity with career age for most disciplines and a higher chance of outperforming in journal impact during early career stages. Keywords: network, cooperation, social physics, complex system Published in DKUM: 10.12.2024; Views: 0; Downloads: 8
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10. Cross-sectional personal network analysis of adult smoking in rural areasBianca-Elena Mihǎilǎ, Marian-Gabriel Hâncean, Matjaž Perc, Jürgen Lerner, Iulian Oană, Marius Geanta, José Luis Molina González, Cosmina Cioroboiu, 2024, original scientific article Abstract: Research on smoking behaviour has primarily focused on adolescents, with less attention given to middle-aged and older adults in rural settings. This study examines the influence of personal networks and sociodemographic factors on smoking behaviour in a rural Romanian community. We analysed data from 76 participants, collected through face-to-face interviews, including smoking status (non-smokers, current and former smokers), social ties and demographic details. Multilevel regression models were used to predict smoking status. The results indicate that social networks are essential in shaping smoking habits. Current smokers were more likely to have smoking family members, reinforcing smoking within familial networks, while non-smokers were typically embedded in non-smoking environments. Gender and age patterns show that women were less likely to smoke, and older adults were more likely to have quit smoking. These findings suggest that targeted interventions should focus not only on individuals but also on their social networks. In rural areas, family-based approaches may be particularly effective due to the strong influence of familial ties. Additionally, encouraging connections with non-smokers and former smokers could help disrupt smoking clusters, supporting smoking cessation efforts. Keywords: network science, human behaviour, data science, smoking, social physics Published in DKUM: 03.12.2024; Views: 0; Downloads: 2
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