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The panel VAR approach to modelling the housing wealth effect : evidence from selected European post-transition economies
Anita Čeh Časni, Ksenija Dumičić, Josip Tica, 2016, original scientific article

Abstract: Following Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis and Ando and Modigliani’s lifecycle hypothesis, this paper empirically studies the role of house prices and income in determining the dynamic behaviour of consumption in selected European post-transition economies using the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) approach and quarterly data covering the period from the first quarter of 2002 until the second quarter of 2012. With the shocks being recognized using the customary recursive identification scheme, we found that the response of personal consumption to the housing wealth shock is initially positive, but short lived.
Keywords: consumption, housing wealth effect, house prices, panel vector autoregression, European emerging markets
Published in DKUM: 03.05.2018; Views: 682; Downloads: 95
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The effect of the combination of different methods of stock analysis on portfolio performance
Vesna Trančar, 2015, original scientific article

Abstract: The literature that examines the stock analysis is often faced with the same questions: Which stock analyses should be chosen and which indicators of individual stock analyses give the best information on whether a particular stock should be included in the portfolio? How many indicators and which combination of indicators should you choose to forecast future stock prices as accurately as possible? Can investors use stock analyses to create such a portfolio to meet the investment expectations? The main purpose of this article is to use theoretical methodology to determine whether the use of a combination of indicators from different stock analyses has a positive impact on the profitability of the portfolio.
Keywords: portfolio, stock analysis, portfolio manager, indicators, investment decisions, stock prices
Published in DKUM: 14.11.2017; Views: 864; Downloads: 290
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Cenovne disparitete v slovenskem gospodarstvu
Egon Žižmond, 1990, professional article

Abstract: V slovenskem gospodarstvu so prisotne znatne cenovne disparitete, ki otežujejo tudi vključevanje slovenskega gospodarstva v evropski gospodarski prostor. Članek analizira disparitete proizvajalnih in drobnoprodajnih cen ter razlike med izvoznimi cenami na eni ter direktnimi stroški, lastnimi cenami in proizvajalnimi cenami na drugi strani. Ker je večina disparitet posledica etatističnega ekonomskega sistema in administriranja v ekonomski politiki, bi le reforma ekonomskega sistema in ustreznejša ekonomska politika lahko omogočila oblikovanje normalnejših cenovnih razmerij.
Keywords: cene, gibanje cen, Slovenija, proizvajalna cena, produkcijska cena, politika cen, industrijska politika, prodaja na drobno, dinamični model, prodajna cena, prices, price movement, Slovenia, production price, price policy, retail sale, sales price, dynamical model
Published in DKUM: 10.07.2015; Views: 967; Downloads: 23
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Andreja Nemet, 2015, doctoral dissertation

Abstract: Economically viable process designs should be, in addition to other criteria, profitable over their entire process lifetimes not only at the present time. An improved process design can be achieved by establishing an appropriate trade-off between product income, raw material, operating costs, and investment. The full lifetime of the processes and future prices have to be considered rather than optimising them on a yearly basis using current prices. Single-period optimisation and synthesis models for processes reflects current prices only. The prices can fluctuate rather quickly and the optimal solution may be very different from one year to the another. Therefore, the traditional superstructural synthesis approach applying a mixed-integer nonlinear programming model was upgraded: i) over time, by considering an entire lifetime, which can be described by a multi-period model and ii) the whole field of variation regarding uncertain future prices. A stochastic approach considering the statistical distribution of price projections over an entire lifetime was used on different case studies instead of the traditional deterministic approach accounting for nominal future price projection. The objective was the maximisation of the expected net present value of a process or the expected incremental net present value of different process subsystem. The heat exchanger network has been one of the subsystem, which can significantly contribute to operating costs due to savings of external utility consumption. For this subsystem a deterministic and stochastic multi-period mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) synthesis models have been developed in order to account for future price projections. Considering higher energy prices gives rise to larger initial investments compared to solutions obtained with current prices. However, due to the uncertainties of utility prices' forecasts, retrofitting using an extension of HEN during future years of the lifespan might be a better strategy. The objective is to identify a design that is the most suitable for effective future extensions and preferably with the lowest sensitivity to energy price fluctuations, as there can be various designs featuring similar initial investment. The results supports that it is economically beneficial to consider future utility prices as the incremental investment is not only paid-off but additional savings are achieved. Process-to-process Heat Integration can also significantly affect the trade-off between investment and operating cost. The aim of Total Site (TS) HEN synthesis was to develop a model synthesis for the TS that, besides many other important features, would also consider future utility prices. Two strategies for TS synthesis have been developed: i) sequential, when HI is performed within a process during the first step and then after a process-to-process HI has been performed, and ii) simultaneous, where the HI is performed within and between processes simultaneously. The second strategy can reveal additional opportunities for heat recovery that might not be identified when applying the first strategy. Comparison of the results obtained at consideration of current utility prices and forecasted utility prices indicates that is worth to account for future utility prices. The separation processes also consume a significant amount of energy. The synthesis of a distillation column sequence integrated within its heat exchanger network was used as a case study for the separation of a multi-component stream into pure component products by considering future utility prices. This analysis has been performed in order to evaluate the magnitude of the influence of forecasted utility prices. It can be concluded that forecasted utility prices can be beneficial, however, the technical limits of the systems should be carefully observed. The price fluctuation can also be observed for other prices not only utility prices, e.g. raw material cost, product price, etc
Keywords: future prices, forecasted prices, stochastic optimisation, mathematical programming, Heat Exchanger Network, Total Site, distillation column sequence, methanol production
Published in DKUM: 04.05.2015; Views: 1443; Downloads: 121
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