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1.
The trade deficit and banking sector results in Romania and Bulgaria
Alenka Kavkler, Mejra Festić, 2010, original scientific article

Abstract: We tested for the significance of macroeconomic variables that condition non-performing loan ratios. Our estimates for Bulgaria and Romania support the hypothesis that the growth of available finance might harm banking performance and deteriorate NPL dynamics, most probably due to the overheatingof economies. Since we confirmed that the dynamics of net exports of these economies deteriorated the NPL ratio, the weakening of growth in export-oriented industries could lead to economic contraction with a direct impact on the sustainability of banking-sector results in these countries. Large current account deficits are typical for emerging markets and do not pose a problem as long as they are caused by the importing of capital goods, and, if future export growth is strong enough to reimburse foreign debt. Structural dependence on external financing - which is in part a by-product of the effect of low levels of internal saving - have led to large current account deficits and financial instability.
Keywords: cyclicality, non-performing loans, systemic risk, asset quality, economic growth
Published: 24.07.2017; Views: 281; Downloads: 51
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2.
Macroeconomic determinants of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities of Croatian banks
Manuel Benazić, Dajana Radin, 2015, original scientific article

Abstract: Background and Purpose: The non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities are often considered key factors that lead to banking crises. Economic and financial crises increase the level of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities which can cause significant losses for banks. Effective management and regulatory/ supervisory institutions such central banks should be able to recognize and quantify these effects. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to empirically determine the existence and the quantitative impact of main Croatian macroeconomic variables on the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities of Croatian banks in the long and short-run. Methodology: For this purpose the bounds testing (ARDL) approach for cointegration is applied. The ARDL model is performed in two steps. The first step starts with conducting the bounds test for cointegration. In the second step, when cointegration is found, the long-run relationship and the associated error correction model are estimated. Results: The results indicate the existence of stable cointegration relationship between the variables i.e. in the longrun, an increase in real GDP reduces the level of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities of Croatian banks wherein an increase in prices, unemployment, interest rate and the depreciation of the Croatian kuna exchange rate increases their level. On the other hand, in the short-run the results are rather mixed. Conclusion: To avoid crises, effective bank management and regulatory/supervisory institutions should be able to recognize and quantify these effects. This is a necessary precondition for implementation of an adequate prudential and monetary policy measures for reducing the level of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities.
Keywords: non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities, non-performing loans, economic and financial crises, credit risk, classification of placements and off-balance sheet liabilities
Published: 04.12.2017; Views: 352; Downloads: 176
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