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The international energy security risk index in sustainable energy and economy transition decision making - a reliability analysis
Iztok Podbregar, Goran Šimić, Mirjana Radovanović, Sanja Filipović, Damjan Maletič, Polona Šprajc, 2020, original scientific article

Abstract: The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients.
Keywords: energy and economy transition, decision making, international energy security risk index, multiple regression analysis, multicollinearity test, multicollinearity test with variance inflation factors
Published in DKUM: 04.02.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 2
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Model for optimal project portfolio for the construction of railway infrastructure on corridors V and X
Anton Hauc, Majda Bastič, Lidia Jurše, Mirko Pšunder, 2010, other scientific articles

Abstract: The construction of railway infrastructure should be dealt with as a national strategic developmental programme, which due to technical, geographical, logistical, and other requirements is carried out through a number of projects and represents a complex multiple project operation for investors, contractors, and other influential players. The national strategic developmental programme for the construction of the railway infrastructure is connected through programmes in neighbouring countries and EU member states to Trans-European Networks (TEN) that strategically regulate construction within the community. In the Republic of Slovenia, the construction of railway infrastructure within TEN programmes is carried out on the pan-European traffic corridors V and X within individual projects for the construction of sections and a number of supporting projects. Technical requirements, deadlines, and other TEN requirements as well as national strategic requirements and financial possibilities of the state represent basic criteria that should be taken into consideration in setting up a strategic project plan, with optimal project classification achieved through the implementation project portfolio. The current article utilised the method of multiple-criteria decision analysis to prepare the portfolio, taking into account macroeconomic and infrastructural criteria. Consequently, the results represent the basis for the preparation of an optimal financial plan with regard to financing possibilities of the Republic of Slovenia and the European Union. The article also summarised the research results regarding the formation of the project implementation process of the TEN-T network construction in the Republic of Slovenia.
Keywords: national strategic development, railway infrastructure construction, railway corridors V and X, project portfolio, multiple-criteria decision analysis, Republic of Slovenia
Published in DKUM: 05.06.2017; Views: 1662; Downloads: 437
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