1. Economic policy and confidence of economic agents - a causal relationship?Silvo Dajčman, 2020, original scientific article Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to study whether innovations in monetary and fiscal policy are a leading indicator of future business and consumer confidence and reverse applying the panel Granger causality analysis to two periods in the history of the euro area: before and after the start of the Great Recession. The results show that Granger causality interaction between the confidence of economic agents and the stance of monetary policy (measured by the shadow rate) is stronger than between the former and the fiscal policy instruments. The European Central Bank (ECB) shadow rate innovations Granger caused business and consumer confidence in both periods, but also indicators of confidence Granger caused the shadow rate. No such feedback could be established between two fiscal policy instruments (government expenditure and revenue growth) and the indicators of confidence. Government spending and revenues Granger caused business confidence in the first subperiod, but not in the second subperiod when the causality reversed. The government revenues Granger caused consumer confidence in the first subperiod, while government expenditures in the second subperiod. Consumer confidence Granger caused government spending in the first subperiod.
Keywords: fiscal policy, monetary policy, consumer confidence, business confidence, panel Granger causality
Published in DKUM: 20.01.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 2
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2. Macroprudential policy versus other economic policiesEva Lorenčič, Mejra Festić, 2021, review article Abstract: After the global financial crisis of 2007, macroprudential policy instruments have gained in recognition as a crucial tool for enhancing financial stability. Monetary policy, fiscal policy, and microprudential policy operate with a different toolkit and focus on achieving goals other than the stability of the financial system as a whole. In ligh of this, a fourth policy – namely macroprudential policy – is required to mitigate and prevent shocks that could destabilize the financial system as a whole and compromise financial stability. The aim of this paper is to contrast macroprudential policy with other economic policies and explain why other economic policies are unable to attain financial stability, which in turn justifies the need for a separate macroprudential policy, the ultimate goal whereof is precisely financial stability of the financial system as a whole. Our research results based on the descriptive research method indicate that, in order to prevent future financial crises, it is indispensable to combine both the microprudential and the macroprudential approach to financial stability. This is because the causes of the crises are often such that they cannot be prevented or mitigated by relying only on microprudential or only on macroprudential policy instruments.
Keywords: macroprudential policy, monetary policy, microprudential policy, financial stability
Published in DKUM: 30.09.2024; Views: 0; Downloads: 6
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3. International transmission of conventional and unconventional monetary policy and financial stress shocks from the euro area to RussiaSilvo Dajčman, Alenka Kavkler, Sergey Merzlyakov, Sergey E. Pekarski, Dejan Romih, 2022, original scientific article Abstract: This paper studies the international transmission of the euro area´s monetary policy and financial stress to Russia. The results show that financial stress in the euro area damages Russian economic activity and stock prices, but not its trade balance. The contractionary euro area monetary policy shock decreases Russian GDP, leads to real appreciation of the euro against the Russian rouble, damages Russian stock prices, but does not significantly affect the trade balance between countries. We also found that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation adjusts to monetary policy shocks in the euro area.
Keywords: conventional monetary policy, unconventional monetary policy, financial stress, Russia, international transmission
Published in DKUM: 26.09.2023; Views: 419; Downloads: 37
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4. Exchange rate regime and bahaviour of economic participantsNeven Vidaković, 2012, doctoral dissertation Abstract: This thesis investigates the impact of the exchange rate regime choice on participants in the economy. The usual approach to the investigate the impact of the exchange rate changes in the economy is to investigate how do the changes in the exchange rate value impact the changes in the inflation rate. In order to stabilize inflation many central banks often adopt fixed or very stable exchange rates. This thesis takes another approach entirely and contests the narrow view of the exchange rate to just inflation. This thesis postulates that the choices of the exchange rate regime in itself dictates the behavior of economic agents. Under different exchange rate regimes the economic participants will make different choices and the difference in choices will be exhibited in the economic data. So economies with different exchange rate regimes will have different data properties for same economic variables.
The focus of analysis is the transition small open economies which have to make a choice between stable and variable exchange rate regime. The interaction between participants in the economy is investigated through a dynamic model with optimizing agents under two states: stable and variable exchange rate regime. The participants analyzed in the thesis are: central bank, banks, households, firms and governments. Each participant makes optimal choices under each state of the exchange rate regime. Once the model is implemented interactions between the participants is investigated and how different choices change the data behavior. The model created is heavily skewed towards the impact of the monetary policy on the economy and does not investigate deeply into the fiscal policies.
The predictions from the model are compared to the actual data on a sample of 10 transition economies: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia. The model does very well in terms of the monetary variables like foreign debt, household debt. From the data it is clear there are possible fiscal policies which could offset the effects of a particular exchange rate regime, but on the data set this was only done in Czech Republic.
Comparing the model and the data it is clear the choice of the exchange rate regime and the change of the exchange rate regime (switch in the regime) does cause different economic behavior of economic participants. This brings another light to the influence of the monetary policy on the economy since from the model and the data it is clear the choice of the exchange rate regime play a significant role in the process of decision making of economic participants. The model predicts and the data confirms there is a considerable differences in the economic variables between the two regimes. The most striking differences are in: household debt and foreign debt. The model and the data both show the variable exchange rate is superior to stable exchange rate regime
Keywords: exchange rate regime, dynamic optimization, economic participants, monetary policy
Published in DKUM: 22.07.2014; Views: 1763; Downloads: 132
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5. PROS AND CONS OF THE CURRENCY BOARD-CASE OF BULGARIAZornitsa Daskalova Krasimirova, 2010, final seminar paper Abstract: The investigated topic is such that retains its importance throughout time as it tends to be a good lesson on the misconduct of monetary policy of one country during turbulent and drastic economic and political changes, and the following actions meant to bridle back the economy to its stable performance. The focus of this thesis is of Bulgaria and the way it coped with the galloping hyperinflation in the late nineties of the previous century.
My main motivation and reason behind writing this thesis is first the fact that I am Bulgarian, who has the language know-how and the access to vaster sources describing and delving into the investigated topic. Furthermore, I am familiar with the culture that stands behind and affects in many aspects the decisions that happened to be decisive for those tumultuous times, thus I can give a better insight on the topic to the people observing from abroad. Therefore, I have attempted to give an objective and straightforward analysis and explanation behind the history, structure, past and present challenges of the Bulgarian currency board, and its advantages and disadvantages that it has had in the country. I hope the information is clear and useful enough to create awareness in the other EU countries of the main arguments and disputes surrounding this pegged system and in general help toward forming a basis for a proper decision making.
There were some limitations in the course of work; i.e denied access to some of the materials and articles as they are available only when accessed from Bulgaria. Despite the difficulties, I managed to get a broad scope of sources- domestic and international ones, to come up with the final coherent piece of work that I have the honour to present to you. Further down, in the Introduction part, I have elaborated deeper on the way how I have prepared and structured the investigated topic of my bachelor thesis.
Keywords: currency board, “orthodox” currency board, pegged currency, anchor currency, monetary policy, Bulgarian monetary policy, economic crisis, financial crisis, inflation, depreciation, current account deficit, ERM 2, Bulgarian politics, Bulgaria, EU, IMF, Bulgarian National Bank, Eurozone
Published in DKUM: 05.05.2011; Views: 3012; Downloads: 133
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