Modelling of the risk factors and chronic diseases that influence the development of serious health complicationsMaja Atanasijević-Kunc
, Jože Drinovec
, Simona Ručigaj
, Aleš Mrhar
, 2008, original scientific article
Abstract: Background: Some chronic diseases, like diabetes type 2 and hypertension, and risk factors, such as obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and smoking, are strongly correlated with the potential development of serious health complications that can threaten a patient's life or significantly influence the quality of life, while at the same time representing an enormous economic burden. Such complications include, for example, stroke, coronary heart disease, peripheralarterial vascular disease, end-stage renal disease and congestive heart failure.
Methods: For a quantitative evaluation of the mentioned patient groups, the age distribution and an estimation of the treatment expenses a dynamic mathematical model was developed, where special attention was devoted to its structure, as it should enable the sequential construction and representation of different forms of data information. The model was realized in the Matlab program package with the Simulink Toolbox.
Conclusions: A dynamic mathematical model is described that enables the observation of patients (in percentage terms) with diabetes type 2 and obesity, as well as those who smoke, have hypercholesterolemia and hypertension and all possible combinations of these problems, related to their age. Taking into account the Slovenian demographic data and annual treatment expenses, we were able to quantitatively evaluate these factors, not only in Slovenia but also in other developed regions where the demographic and economic situations are similar. It is also possible to extend the model to patients with serious complications, also taking into account the population dynamics, which is the goal of the next steps in our investigation.
Regarding the presented results, it is estimated that from a group of a million people, those requiring treatment for diabetes type 2 cost as much as € 19.5 millions per year, since the treatment of one patient for one year is € 355. If all the sufferers requiring such treatment were located, as a consequence of more systematic medical examinations, an additional € 16 millions would be needed.
In this group of one million people, as many as 40 % are expected to develop hypercholesterolemia, of which 26 % are diagnosed and treated adequately. The annual cost for the treatment of one patient is 313, which means that for a group of a million people the costs would be € 82 millions per year. An additional € 43.5 millions would be needed if all the sufferers with hypercholesterolemia were treated.
Another chronic disease is hypertension. The annual cost for treating one patient is estimated to be €
271, and so for a group of a million people the treatment costs would be € 69.5 millions. If this were extended to include so far undiscovered sufferers with this chronic disease an additional € 14.5 millions would be needed.
Keywords: modelling, simulation, diabetes type 2, obesity, smoking, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension
Published: 28.03.2017; Views: 306; Downloads: 51
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