1. A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuationsDouglas MacKinnon, Martin Pavlovič, 2020, original scientific article Abstract: This paper quantifies the correlation between U.S. season average prices for hops with U.S. hop stocks and U.S. hop hectarage. The Hop Equilibrium Ratio, a measure of the supply/demand relationship for U.S. hops, was introduced. Through the Bayesian inference method, the authors used these data to calculate the effect an incremental change to one metric had on the probability of directional changes of future U.S. season average prices (SAP). Between 2010 and 2020, the dominance of proprietary varieties created unprecedented cartel-like powers offering opportunities for supply- and price-management. Research results will enable more accurate forecasting and greater price stability in the hop industry.
Keywords: alpha-acid, Bayesian theorem, brewing industry, economies of scale, equillbrium, hop market
Published in DKUM: 28.01.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 32
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2. The delayed surplus response for hops related to market dynamicsDouglas MacKinnon, Martin Pavlovič, 2022, original scientific article Abstract: The cyclical nature of hop market pricing has been recorded since the 16th century, but the effect had never previously been documented or quantified. Using Bayesian inference in an analysis of data regarding the US hop industry collected and published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) it was possible to measure the change of inventory and acreage responsiveness to price during periods of free and markets regulated through the enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPR). The data demonstrated a delayed, reduced, or total lack of responsiveness in the change of direction of acreage and inventory in response to directional changes in season average price (SAP) during free market periods. This reaction was referred to as the delayed surplus response (DSR). The data also demonstrated the absence of the DSR during periods in which proprietary varieties reached greater than 50% of US acreage and production. Patented plant varieties offer a legal monopoly over that intellectual property (IP). The absence of the DSR during periods in which a majority of US acreage and production were proprietary indicated a strong degree of control over supply. By extension, the owners of proprietary varieties demonstrated the ability to influence price at desired levels.
Keywords: Bayesian inference, brewing industry, disequilibrium, hop market, proprietary variety
Published in DKUM: 11.07.2024; Views: 75; Downloads: 10
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3. Proprietary varieties’ influence on economics and competitiveness in land use within the hop industryDouglas MacKinnon, Martin Pavlovič, 2023, original scientific article Abstract: To evaluate changes to hop industry concentration and competitiveness the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) was used. The ownership of hop proprietary varieties, their acreage and production were compared with public varieties. Market share for each proprietary hop variety acreage and production was calculated between 2000 and 2020. The quantity of land under centralized control in the U.S. hop industry due to increased proprietary variety acreage between 2000 and 2020 was quantified. Assuming tacit collusion between the participants in the oligopoly, the HHI enabled us to quantify the portion of land under oligopoly control. The HHI analysis of hop acreage and hop production demonstrated that market concentration rose rapidly between the years 2010 (0.0376 and 0.0729) and 2020 (0.4927 and 0.5394). This resulted in decreasing business competitiveness within the market during this period caused primarily by rapid consolidation of ownership during increased proprietary variety acreage and production increases. Calculations revealed that in 2016 a tipping point had been reached concerning market concentration, which resulted in higher sustained season average prices of hops—a key raw material in brewing.
Keywords: hop industry, varieties, market concentration, intellectual property, prices
Published in DKUM: 21.03.2024; Views: 183; Downloads: 34
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4. A review of the EU hop industry involvement within a beer brewing sectorMartin Pavlovič, Jernej Turk, Viljem Pavlovič, 2012, review article Keywords: pivovarstvo, proizvodnja piva, marketing, hop industry, beer markets, production straucture, competitiveness
Published in DKUM: 30.12.2015; Views: 1519; Downloads: 30
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