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Abstract: After mosquitoes, ticks are the most important vectors of infectious diseases. They play an important role in public health. In recent decades, we discovered new tick-borne diseases; additionally, those that are already known are spreading to new areas because of climate change. Slovenia is an endemic region for Lyme borreliosis and one of the countries with the highest incidence of this disease on a global scale. Thus, the spatial pattern of Slovenian Lyme borreliosis prevalence was modelled with 246 indicators and transformed into 24 uncorrelated predictor variables that were applied in geographically weighted regression and regression tree algorithms. The projected potential shifts in Lyme borreliosis foci by 2050 and 2070 were calculated according to the RCP8.5 climate scenario. These results were further applied to developing a Slovenian Lyme borreliosis infection risk map, which could be used as a preventive decision support system.
Keywords: CART, climate change, MGWR, Lyme disease, infection risk, spatial modelling
Published in DKUM: 12.08.2024; Views: 69; Downloads: 10
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