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Zornitsa Daskalova Krasimirova, 2010, final seminar paper

Abstract: The investigated topic is such that retains its importance throughout time as it tends to be a good lesson on the misconduct of monetary policy of one country during turbulent and drastic economic and political changes, and the following actions meant to bridle back the economy to its stable performance. The focus of this thesis is of Bulgaria and the way it coped with the galloping hyperinflation in the late nineties of the previous century. My main motivation and reason behind writing this thesis is first the fact that I am Bulgarian, who has the language know-how and the access to vaster sources describing and delving into the investigated topic. Furthermore, I am familiar with the culture that stands behind and affects in many aspects the decisions that happened to be decisive for those tumultuous times, thus I can give a better insight on the topic to the people observing from abroad. Therefore, I have attempted to give an objective and straightforward analysis and explanation behind the history, structure, past and present challenges of the Bulgarian currency board, and its advantages and disadvantages that it has had in the country. I hope the information is clear and useful enough to create awareness in the other EU countries of the main arguments and disputes surrounding this pegged system and in general help toward forming a basis for a proper decision making. There were some limitations in the course of work; i.e denied access to some of the materials and articles as they are available only when accessed from Bulgaria. Despite the difficulties, I managed to get a broad scope of sources- domestic and international ones, to come up with the final coherent piece of work that I have the honour to present to you. Further down, in the Introduction part, I have elaborated deeper on the way how I have prepared and structured the investigated topic of my bachelor thesis.
Keywords: currency board, “orthodox” currency board, pegged currency, anchor currency, monetary policy, Bulgarian monetary policy, economic crisis, financial crisis, inflation, depreciation, current account deficit, ERM 2, Bulgarian politics, Bulgaria, EU, IMF, Bulgarian National Bank, Eurozone
Published: 05.05.2011; Views: 2071; Downloads: 71
.pdf Full text (620,89 KB)

Asymmetric correlation of sovereign bond yield dynamics in the Eurozone
Silvo Dajčman, 2013, original scientific article

Abstract: This paper examines the symmetry of correlation of sovereign bond yield dynamics between eight Eurozone countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) in the period from January 3, 2000 to August 31, 2011. Asymmetry of correlation is investigated pair-wise by applying the test of Yongmiao Hong, Jun Tu, and Guofu Zhou (2007). Whereas the test of Hong, Tu, and Zhou (2007) is static, the present paper provides also a dynamic version of the test and identifies time periods when the correlation of Eurozone sovereign bond yield dynamics became asymmetric. We identified seven pairs of sovereign bond markets for which the null hypothesis of symmetry in correlation of sovereign bond yield dynamics can be rejected. Calculating rolling-window exceedance correlation, we found that the time-varying upper- (i.e. for positive yield changes) and lower-tail correlations (i.e. for negative yield changes) for pair-wise observed sovereign bond markets normally follow each other closely, yet during some time periods (for most pair-wise observed countries, these periods are around the September 11 attack on the New York City WTC and around the start of the Greek debt crisis) the difference in correlation does increase. The results show that the upper- and lower-tail correlation was symmetric before the Eurozone debt crisis for most of the pair-wise observed sovereign bond markets but has become much less symmetric since then.
Keywords: asymmetric correlation, sovereign bonds, Eurozone, financial crisis
Published: 03.08.2017; Views: 204; Downloads: 68
.pdf Full text (470,77 KB)
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