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Global projections of plastic use, end-of-life fate and potential changes in consumption, reduction, recycling and replacement with bioplastics to 2050
Monika Dokl, Anja Copot, Damjan Krajnc, Yee Van Fan, Annamaria Vujanović, Kathleen B. Aviso, Raymond R. Tan, Zdravko Kravanja, Lidija Čuček, 2024, original scientific article

Abstract: Excessive production, indiscriminate consumption, and improper disposal of plastics have led to plastic pollution and its hazardous environmental effects. Various approaches to tackle the challenges of reducing the plastic footprint have been developed and applied, such as the production of alternative materials (design for recycling), the production and use of biodegradable plastic and plastics from power-to-X, and the development of recycling approaches. This study proposes an optimisation strategy based on regression to evaluate and predict plastic use and end-of-life fate in the future based on historical trends. The mathematical model is formulated and correlations based on functions of time are developed and optimised by minimising the sum of squared residuals. The plastic quantities up to the year 2050 are projected based on historical trends analysis, and for improved sustainability, projections are additionally based on intervention analyses. The results show that the global use of plastics is expected to increase from 464 Mt in 2020 up to 884 Mt in 2050, with up to 4725 Mt of plastics accumulated in stock in 2050 (from the year 2000). Compared to other available forecasts, a slightly lower level of plastic use and stock are obtained. The intervention analysis estimates a range of global plastics' consumption between 594 Mt and 1018 Mt in 2050 by taking into account its different increment rates (between −1 % and 2.65 %). In the packaging sector, the implementation of reduction targets (15 % reduction in 2040 compared to 2018) could lead to a 27.3 % decrease in plastic use in 2050 as compared to 2018, while achieving recycling targets (55 % in 2030) would recycle >75 % of plastic packaging in 2050. The partial substitution of fossil-based plastics with bioplastics (polyethylene) will require significant land area, between 0.2 × 106 km2 for obtaining switchgrass and up to around 1.0 × 106 km2 for obtaining forest residue (annual yields of 58.15 t/ha and 3.5 t/ha) in 2050. The intervention analysis shows that proactive policies can mitigate sustainability challenges, however achieving broader sustainability goals also requires reduction of footprints related to energy production and virgin plastic production, the production of bio-based plastics, and the full implementation of recycling initiatives.
Keywords: plastic use, plastic waste, end-of-life fate, forecasting, hostorical trends, regression analysis, least square method, intervention analysis
Published in DKUM: 31.01.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 10
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Decomposition and fragmentation of conventional and biobased plastic wastes in simulated and real aquatic systems
Olivija Plohl, Lidija Fras Zemljič, Alen Erjavec, Noemi Sep, Maja Čolnik, Yee Van Fan, Mojca Škerget, Annamaria Vujanović, Lidija Čuček, Julija Volmajer Valh, 2024, original scientific article

Abstract: Plastics play a crucial role in our daily lives. The challenge, however, is that they become waste and contribute to a global environmental problem, increasing concerns about pollution and the urgent need to protect the environment. The accumulation and fragmentation of plastic waste, especially micro- and nanoplastics in aquatic systems, poses a significant threat to ecosystems and human health. In this study, the decomposition and fragmentation processes of conventional and biobased plastic waste in simulated water bodies (waters with different pH values) and in real water systems (tap water and seawater) are investigated over a period of one and six months. Three types of plastic were examined: thermoplastic polyethylene terephthalate and thermoset melamine etherified resin in the form of nonwovens and biobased polylactic acid (PLA) in the form of foils. Such a comprehensive study involving these three types of plastics and the methodology for tracking degradation in water bodies has not been conducted before, which underlines the novelty of the present work. After aging of the plastics, both the solid fraction and the leachate in the liquid phase were carefully examined. The parameters studied include mass loss, structural changes and alterations in functional groups observed in the aged plastics. Post-exposure assessment of the fragmented pieces includes quantification of the microplastic, microscopic observations and confirmation of composition by in situ Attenuated Total Reflectance Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy. The leachate analysis includes pH, conductivity, turbidity, total carbon and microplastic size distribution. The results highlight the importance of plastic waste morphology and the minor degradation of biobased PLA and show that microfibers contribute to increased fragmentation in all aquatic systems and leave a significant ecological footprint. This study underlines the crucial importance of post-consumer plastic waste management and provides valuable insights into strategies for environmental protection. It also addresses the pressing issue of plastic pollution and provides evidence-based measures to mitigate its environmental impact.
Keywords: polylactic acid, polyethylene terephthalate fabric, melamine etherifed resin fabric, aquatic environment, fragmentation, waste disposal
Published in DKUM: 09.09.2024; Views: 73; Downloads: 29
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A game theoretic approach for plastic life cycle assessment
Chunyan Si, Yee Van Fan, Lidija Čuček, Monika Dokl, Petar Varbanov, 2023, original scientific article

Abstract: Plastic production and its end-of-life management pose a significant environmental footprint. The mitigation strategies of the plastic industry are comparatively attainable than the other hard-to-abate sector. However, the involvement of different stakeholders is needed. The life cycle analysis proposed in this study allocated the environmental footprint to stakeholders based on the game theory concept. It addresses the limitation of previous approaches that do not guarantee the stakeholders from different stages will participate in the initiatives with the lowest net environmental footprint due to the dissatisfaction or imbalance in the allocated unburdening footprint (benefit) and burdening footprint. The applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a plastic recycling case study. An allocation of 82 % of environmental benefit to the producer, 14 % to the manufacturer, and 4 % to the user are suggested to achieve efficiency (lowest external interference) and stable cooperation (participation in recycling). This work serves as an initial assessment in demonstrating the integration of the game theory concept in environmental footprint allocation or Life Cycle Assessment.
Keywords: plastic production, environmental footprint, life cycle
Published in DKUM: 18.04.2024; Views: 155; Downloads: 6
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