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Assessing the impact of prices fluctuation on demand distortion within a multi-echelon supply chain
Francisco Campuzano Bolarín, Antonio Guillamón Frutos, Andrej Lisec, 2011, review article

Abstract: Price fluctuation is a practice commonly used by companies to stimulate demand and a main cause of the Bullwhip effect. Assuming a staggered step demand pattern that responds elastically to retailer’s price fluctuation, and by using a supply chain management dynamic model, we will analyse the impact of these fluctuations on the variability of the orders placed along a traditional multilevel supply chain. Subsequently, the results obtained will serve to propose a forecasting model enabling to calculate the potential variability of orders placed by each echelon on the basis of the price pattern used. Finally, under the hypothesis of an environment of collaboration between the different members of the chain, we propose a predictive model that makes it possible to quantify the distortion of the orders generated by each level.
Keywords: bullwhip effect, systems dynamics, price fluctuation, supply chain management
Published: 01.06.2017; Views: 544; Downloads: 253
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Alternative forecasting techniques that reduce the bullwhip effect in a supply chain
Francisco Campuzano Bolarín, Antonio Guillamón Frutos, Ma Del Carmen Ruiz Abellón, Andrej Lisec, 2013, review article

Abstract: The research of the Bullwhip effect has given rise to many papers, aimed at both analysing its causes and correcting it by means of various management strategies because it has been considered as one of the critical problems in a supply chain. This study is dealing with one of its principal causes, demand forecasting. Using different simulated demand patterns, alternative forecasting methods are proposed, that can reduce the Bullwhip effect in a supply chain in comparison to the traditional forecasting techniques (moving average, simple exponential smoothing, and ARMA processes). Our main findings show that kernel regression is a good alternative in order to improve important features in the supply chain, such as the Bullwhip, NSAmp, and FillRate.
Keywords: bullwhip effect, supply chain, kernel regression, system dynamics model
Published: 31.05.2017; Views: 566; Downloads: 84
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Inventory cost consequences of variability demand process within a multi-echelon supply chain
Francisco Campuzano Bolarín, Andrej Lisec, Francisco Cruz Lario Esteban, 2008, original scientific article

Abstract: The bullwhip effect (Lee et al, 1997a) is a known supply chain phenomenon where small variations in end item demand create oscillations that amplify throughout the chain. Different price elasticity of demand influence different changes of demand when prices of items are changing on the time horizon. The variance of the orders at the end user placed on suppliers or on manufacturer increases with the orders flow upstream in the logistics chain. This creates harmful consequences in inventory levels and all kind of inventory costs that may affect added value of activities along the logistics chain and finally affect Net Present Value of all activities in the chain. Traditional model of dynamic supply chain structures is used for this particular study, based on the seminal work of Forrester Diagrams (Forrester 1961). Simulation platform for supply chain management at stochastic demand developed by Campuzano (2006) has been used. VENSIM Simulation Software was previously used for developing these supply chain dynamic models. In the development platform generalised supply chain models are constructed graphically and also analytically. Our study here is to get a dipper insight into the processes in a logistics chain, measuring the inventory cost consequences due to variability demand amplification.
Keywords: bullwhip effect, demand amplification, logistic chain, system dynamics
Published: 05.06.2012; Views: 976; Downloads: 30
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