1. The impact of weather conditions on alpha-acid content in hop (Humulus lupulus L.) cv. AuroraDouglas MacKinnon, Viljem Pavlovič, Barbara Čeh, Boštjan Naglič, Martin Pavlovič, 2020, original scientific article Abstract: The influence of four main weather attributes on the content of alpha-acids of the hop cv. Aurora for the period 1994-2019 was studied. By analysing correlation coefficients, specific times of the year when the weather conditions affect the alpha-acid content with the goal of creating a forecasting model in Slovenia were identified. The most significant periods of weather that impacted the alpha-acid contents throughout the growing time of year are recognised as attributes of temperatures (T), rainfall (R) and sunshine (S) calculated from the 25th to 30th week (T2530, r = -0.78, P < 0.01; R2529, r = 0.72, P < 0.01 and S2529, r = -0.81, P < 0.01) and attributes of relative humidity (RH) from the 27th to 32nd week (RH2732, r = 0.82, P < 0.01). T2530 stands for the amount of active temperatures from June 18 to July 29. Likewise, R2530 matches to the precipitation (in mm or L/m2) during the same time period. Keywords: alpha-acids, α-acids, weather attributes, cv. Aurora, forecasting, hop quality, brewing process, biosynthesis, vegetative period Published in DKUM: 28.01.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 2
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2. A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuationsDouglas MacKinnon, Martin Pavlovič, 2020, original scientific article Abstract: This paper quantifies the correlation between U.S. season average prices for hops with U.S. hop stocks and U.S. hop hectarage. The Hop Equilibrium Ratio, a measure of the supply/demand relationship for U.S. hops, was introduced. Through the Bayesian inference method, the authors used these data to calculate the effect an incremental change to one metric had on the probability of directional changes of future U.S. season average prices (SAP). Between 2010 and 2020, the dominance of proprietary varieties created unprecedented cartel-like powers offering opportunities for supply- and price-management. Research results will enable more accurate forecasting and greater price stability in the hop industry. Keywords: alpha-acid, Bayesian theorem, brewing industry, economies of scale, equillbrium, hop market Published in DKUM: 28.01.2025; Views: 0; Downloads: 2
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3. The delayed surplus response for hops related to market dynamicsDouglas MacKinnon, Martin Pavlovič, 2022, original scientific article Abstract: The cyclical nature of hop market pricing has been recorded since the 16th century, but the effect had never previously been documented or quantified. Using Bayesian inference in an analysis of data regarding the US hop industry collected and published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) it was possible to measure the change of inventory and acreage responsiveness to price during periods of free and markets regulated through the enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPR). The data demonstrated a delayed, reduced, or total lack of responsiveness in the change of direction of acreage and inventory in response to directional changes in season average price (SAP) during free market periods. This reaction was referred to as the delayed surplus response (DSR). The data also demonstrated the absence of the DSR during periods in which proprietary varieties reached greater than 50% of US acreage and production. Patented plant varieties offer a legal monopoly over that intellectual property (IP). The absence of the DSR during periods in which a majority of US acreage and production were proprietary indicated a strong degree of control over supply. By extension, the owners of proprietary varieties demonstrated the ability to influence price at desired levels. Keywords: Bayesian inference, brewing industry, disequilibrium, hop market, proprietary variety Published in DKUM: 11.07.2024; Views: 75; Downloads: 7
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4. Proprietary varieties’ influence on economics and competitiveness in land use within the hop industryDouglas MacKinnon, Martin Pavlovič, 2023, original scientific article Abstract: To evaluate changes to hop industry concentration and competitiveness the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) was used. The ownership of hop proprietary varieties, their acreage and production were compared with public varieties. Market share for each proprietary hop variety acreage and production was calculated between 2000 and 2020. The quantity of land under centralized control in the U.S. hop industry due to increased proprietary variety acreage between 2000 and 2020 was quantified. Assuming tacit collusion between the participants in the oligopoly, the HHI enabled us to quantify the portion of land under oligopoly control. The HHI analysis of hop acreage and hop production demonstrated that market concentration rose rapidly between the years 2010 (0.0376 and 0.0729) and 2020 (0.4927 and 0.5394). This resulted in decreasing business competitiveness within the market during this period caused primarily by rapid consolidation of ownership during increased proprietary variety acreage and production increases. Calculations revealed that in 2016 a tipping point had been reached concerning market concentration, which resulted in higher sustained season average prices of hops—a key raw material in brewing. Keywords: hop industry, varieties, market concentration, intellectual property, prices Published in DKUM: 21.03.2024; Views: 183; Downloads: 22
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5. Vpliv lastniških sort na trg hmelja zda v letih od 2000 do 2020 vpliv lastniških sort na trg hmelja zda v letih od 2000 do 2020 : doktorska disertacijaDouglas MacKinnon, 2022, doctoral dissertation Abstract: Analizirane so bile spremembe dinamike hmeljnega trga med letoma 1948 in 2020, da bi se vzpostavili izhodiščni rezultati in trendi v zvezi z razmerji med metriko industrije ZDA, kot so proizvodnja, zaloge, izpiranje zalog in povprečna cena sezone. Na podlagi edinstvenih tržnih načel je bilo izbranih pet podpopulacij podatkov. Korelacija z metodo Pearson in verjetnost vzročnih odnosov z uporabo Bayesijevega izreka med metriki industrije so bili izračunani tako, da so dokazali svojo evolucijo skozi čas v različnih obdobjih. Primerjave med obdobji so količinsko razčlenile stopnjo, na katero je do leta 2020 vplival hmeljski trg v ZDA. Vsaka spremenljivka je bila analizirana kot odvisna in neodvisna spremenljivka na načine, ki so merili njihov vpliv na dogodke prihodnjih let. To je omogočilo razvoj modela napovedi cen hmelja v ZDA. Z uporabo Indeksa Herfindahl-Hirschman je bilo zmanjšanje konkurenčnosti v industriji hmelja v ZDA zaradi povečanega lastnega deleža sort med letoma 2000 in 2020 količinsko razvrščeno. Dokumentirani so bili hmeljni kartel z vplivom na hektar, proizvodnjo, dobavo in ceno 70 odstotkov hmelja v zda do leta 2020. Napovedi za leta 2020 do leta 2025 so pokazale lastniško sortno prevlado 90 odstotkov industrije ZDA do leta 2025 z 80 odstotki akrila ZDA pod vplivom enega podjetja. Ugotovljeni so bili dokazi za zakasnitev presežnega odziva (DSR), metodo, s katero se razvija disekvilibrij na trgu hmelja in so bili izpostavljeni podatki, ki dokazujejo njegove učinke med letoma 1948 in 2000. Njena odsotnost v obdobju hitre rasti lastnih sort je ponudila dokaze o obstoju in moči kartela. Hmeljsko ravnotežje (HER) je bila predstavljena metoda za določanje tržnega ravnotežja ZDA in njenih učinkov na količinsko napoved cen. Razpravljalo se je o vplivu cen na obstoj hmeljskega kartela, stroških izgub mrtve teže in morebitnih učinkih doganjanja med trgovci in pridelovalci. Keywords: Hmelj, Ravnotežje, Intelektualna lastnina, Lastniški sorti, Konkurenca, Oligopsony, Bayesian, Pearson, Herfindahl-Hirschman, Kartel. Published in DKUM: 09.05.2022; Views: 1053; Downloads: 72
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